Thank you. I’m not sure if the AI cycle turns this year or in three years, but what the capital cycle approach and just general market history tells us is that it will turn. It’s just hard to know when the incremental dollar of capex decides against investment. My guess is that we’re in the upper half of that cycle, but I can’t say with confidence if it’s the top 10% or top 5%. I would be cautious about assuming the status quo persisting for the next 5-10 years.
Enjoyed the article and the examples. I love the Biblical verse to open up the article. Many investors underestimate the value of the Bible in understanding ourselves and the world in which we invest.
Nice review of the capital cycle with some good examples. The challenge (like you say...even if you're aware of it) is to get the timing right on the buying side and have the patience to stick to it. The bourbon example is one that is a challenge as there may be other factors (cannabis, GLPs, etc.) that may be in play. Again, enjoyed the article!
Really enjoyed the article. What would this mean for AI given the incredible capex plans from the hyperscalers this year?
Thank you. I’m not sure if the AI cycle turns this year or in three years, but what the capital cycle approach and just general market history tells us is that it will turn. It’s just hard to know when the incremental dollar of capex decides against investment. My guess is that we’re in the upper half of that cycle, but I can’t say with confidence if it’s the top 10% or top 5%. I would be cautious about assuming the status quo persisting for the next 5-10 years.
Enjoyed the article and the examples. I love the Biblical verse to open up the article. Many investors underestimate the value of the Bible in understanding ourselves and the world in which we invest.
Nice review of the capital cycle with some good examples. The challenge (like you say...even if you're aware of it) is to get the timing right on the buying side and have the patience to stick to it. The bourbon example is one that is a challenge as there may be other factors (cannabis, GLPs, etc.) that may be in play. Again, enjoyed the article!